Rigetti Computing and D‑Wave Quantum are experiencing sharp revenue declines in 2025, prompting investors to reassess exposure to the quantum‑computing sector. Both companies report sub‑$10 million sales, negative margins, and market‑cap valuations that far exceed current cash‑flow realities, raising red flags as the industry heads into the fourth quarter.
Revenue Decline Overview
Rigetti’s Q1‑Q3 2025 Revenue Drop
Rigetti generated $5.2 million in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, a 39 % decline from the same period a year earlier. Despite a market capitalization near $7.7 billion, the company posted a gross margin of ‑6,849 %. Two system sales announced for October 2025, totaling $5.7 million, will not be recognized until the first half of 2026, leaving the upcoming Q4 earnings report vulnerable to a miss.
D‑Wave’s Recent Performance
D‑Wave’s revenue trajectory mirrors Rigetti’s contraction, with quarterly sales remaining in the low‑single‑digit‑million range. The stock slipped over 6 % following the earnings release, and recent acquisition activity has added further uncertainty for shareholders.
Valuation Pressures in Quantum Computing
Quantum‑computing equities are trading at premium multiples despite modest top‑line results. Companies with market caps in the multi‑billion‑dollar range are generating less than $10 million in annual revenue, creating a mismatch that analysts view as a heightened risk for investors seeking sustainable returns.
Technology Strategies and Market Implications
Rigetti’s Superconducting Full‑Stack Approach
Rigetti pursues a full‑stack superconducting quantum system, integrating hardware, software, and cloud services. This comprehensive architecture aims to deliver universal quantum computing capabilities but faces significant technical and commercialization hurdles.
D‑Wave’s Quantum Annealing Focus
D‑Wave concentrates on quantum annealing, a specialized technique optimized for solving specific optimization problems. While this approach can deliver near‑term applications, it limits the company’s addressable market compared with universal quantum platforms.
Investor Guidance and Portfolio Considerations
Given the revenue shortfalls, inflated valuations, and divergent technology roadmaps, investors are advised to approach Rigetti and D‑Wave with caution. Diversifying into quantum firms with more stable financial metrics, such as those demonstrating consistent revenue streams, may reduce portfolio risk.
Future Outlook for Quantum‑Computing Firms
The quantum‑computing sector remains in an early, volatile phase. Both Rigetti and D‑Wave must convert technical milestones into measurable revenue growth to justify their market valuations. Until consistent cash‑flow generation materializes, the industry is likely to experience continued scrutiny and selective investment.
