BitCoin is down 25%, not in the last year, or last month or even the last week, today, today it is down 25%, in one day! Is this the end of the ponzi scam that is cryptocurrencies? Probably not, some suckers that had not previously brought at $10,000USD will think this is a great time to get in to the market and we will see the typical dead cat bounce, before the ultimate fall to zero.
It is a global phenomenon, I had my sister in Australia, who knows nothing about cryptocurrencies, and only uses the Internet to Skype, email and Youtube ask me if she should invest in this trash. So being a global phenomenon that crash to zero will take longer, there will always be a sucker somewhere in some market that will buy in as the price falls, until the market wakes up to the scam, and then in less than a week fortunes will be lost.
How can I be so sure, basic economics. Do I believe there is demand for a totally anonymous way to trade on the Internet, yeah, for sure, is cryptocurrencies the answer, possibly, but not BitCoin, BitCash or the myriad of crAptocurrencies out there. They have no intrinsic value whatsoever, and are only propped up, like all ponzi schemes, by new money chasing easy returns, eventually they get found out and wala you crash through the floor.
Supporters of craptocurrencies say that there is an intrinsic value based on the fact that there is limited and controlled supply, and can be used to trade for physical goods. Both of those points are a load of BS.
For starters, yes craptocurrencies like BitCoin, control the rate at which new coins can be being created, via its hashing calculations, however they do NOT restrict the rate at which you can bit out each coin. For example, if a BitCoin was worth 1 US cent, and it was always worth 1 US cent, and you restrict the production of new coins via an algorithm, then happy days, you have a coin that you might argue has intrinsic value because of its scarcity. “It’s not like the government that keeps printing new currency every day” right?
But that argument falls down when you increase the price of a BitCoin to say, 1 US dollar, and you allow the coin to be split in to 100 bits, previously you had 1 coin yu could trade with, now you have 100 bits of coin you can trade with. By allowing this you have effectively increased your issued currency by 100 fold, no different than a government printing 100 times their total currency on issue. You see that’s the problem with craptocurrencies, you can keep on splitting them into smaller and smaller bits. At the peak price of 17,500 USD for a BitCoin you had effectively printed 17,500,000 (yes thats 17.5 MILLION) times the original currency on issue.
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If any government on the planet did that to their currency it would be effectively worthless. The closest government to try this was Zimbabwe where they essentially printed money overnight to pay of its international dept. Now 100,000 Zimbabwe cents/coins is worth $2.78 USD.
The second argument that craptocurrencies supporters rollout is that you can buy physical goods with the craptocurrencies, “just like real money”. Except, you can’t. Well technically you could but you would be an idiot to do so, because it would cost you a fortune. You see, to confirm a trade with craptocurrencies you have to pay a “fee” for the network to confirm the trade, it normally takes 10 mins for a single confirmation and about and hour to get to the six confirmations that most people are comfortable that the trade cannot be reversed. But here is the issue, that “fee” you are paying, just keeps on increasing, it currently costs you around $50USD to truly confirm a trade.
So if you are buying a $20 pizza deal, you have to pay $50(!!!) to get the trade confirmed, not such a good deal. If we take the standard 1% fee credit card fee as a basises for a “fair” transaction cost it would mean that the only time is is worth buying something with craptocurrencies is when you spend $5000 USD or more on goods or services, not very practical.
So with craptocurrencies you have an unlimited ability to print new coins by splitting the existing coins into smaller and smaller bits, and coins you would be an idiot to spent unless you want to buy goods over $5000 USD, yeah that sounds like a solid investment right there.
Now I did state at the beginning of the article that there is a need for online global anonymous transactions and where there is a need a solution should present itself to solve that problem. The one cryptocurrency that I think is doing it right is DOSH.ai. These guys allow you to buy DOSH coins, the coins can be exchanged at any time, now or in the future for one troy ounce of Gold, or you can buy bits of coins, that represent 1 gram of gold, for about $43 USD. When you buy a new DOSH coin they buy a physical gold coin and store it, so there is actually a physical object backing up the value of the DOSH coin. The price of the DOSH coin is linked to the price of gold, so you don’t get these huge price swings and just like all cryptocurrencies you can trade your DOSH coins in bits anonymously around the globe.
The best thing about DOSH.ai, is they process all transactions themselves, which means they limit the cost of transaction confirmations to 1.5% of the transactions cost, so your $20 pizza now costs $20.30. These guys are doing it right. They are currently in Beta, but they are taking new applicants on their website, dosh.ai, signup when you can.
